GEN - 847.00. The four trends identified by IEA are that the United States is set to become the global oil and gas exporter, renewables are being deployed rapidly thanks to falling costs, the share of electricity in the energy mix is growing, and China’s new economic strategy takes it on a cleaner growth mode, with implications for global energy markets.
Energy demand
Over the next 25 years, the world’s energy demand is set to increase by 40 %. The biggest demand growth will take place in India followed by China, Africa and the Middle East. In Europe, Japan and America, the demand is expected to decrease. Gasification and electrification (supported by renewables) will remain the main trends. Wind power would constitute one of the major energy sources for Europe.
Emphasis on clean technologies to address poor air quality
Policy attention to air quality is rising. The ageing populations in many industrialised societies become more vulnerable to the effects of air pollution and urbanisation. It is expected that premature deaths worldwide from outdoor air pollution will rise from 3 million today to more than 4 million in 2040.
America to become the leading oil and gas exporter
This will provoke a major reorientation of global trade flows, with consumers in Asia accounting for more than 70% of global oil and gas imports by 2040. China is expected to move and from coal towards gas, and will invest and developer cleaner technologies.
The transport sector is expected to continue its increased demands for oil.
New Policies Scenario
The World Energy Outlook presents various projections to 2040 based on different policy assumptions. The New Policies Scenario is modelled on current and announced energy policies, including those in the Paris Agreement.
Recommended Actions
The findings in the IEA outlook are quite new and members could benefit from the outline of the possible evolutions also on their activities. It is highly recommended to read the summary presented on IEA’s website. For those interested in the detail by country and region, it may be worthwhile to order a copy of the 750-page report
Related documents and links
All related documents and articles can be found in the respective sections in the right sidebar.
- http://www.iea.org/weo2017/ (strongly recommended)
